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上海高峰会没有产生北约-类型防卫协议
Shanghai summit fails to yield NATO-style defence agreement
作者:环球展望    文章来源:本站原创    点击数:    更新时间:2006-7-26 【字体:

    作者理查德·韦茨博士

    虽然他们扩张安全领域,上海合作组织(SCO)首脑们否认任何的意图产生北约的一个欧亚版本。他们证明机构的大规模军事演习被引证是制止装备实质上的常规火力的现代恐怖份子组织的挑战。SCO的秘书长张德广(Zhang Deguang)和SCO的俄国特别外交使节Vitaliy Vorobyev都宣称它的宪章不会准许组织改变成一个军事同盟。SCO没有专门军事力量,一个完整的指挥机构, 或更甚至一名联合计划编制职员。

    中国会从SCO转换到一个常规防卫同盟得到大部分好处,因为它缺乏一个多国机构去合法化和联合它的武装力量在中亚使用。俄国赞同现状因为它能否决SCO决定,需要一致同意,同时中国缺少在集体安全条约组织(CSTO)决定上相等的影响因为它不是一名成员。由于在六月乌兹别克斯坦进入,CSTO现在包括所有的除亚美尼亚和白俄罗斯外的SCO成员。CSTO是一个真正的集体防卫联盟,那些成员保证去保卫相互抵御外来侵略。CSTO已经建立一支4,000-名快速部署部队并且正在发展集体维和部队和增加危机处理能力。

    俄国能在CSTO内使用它的领导地位去组织在中亚的一个地方军事行动,如果必需而无需SCO赞成。即使莫斯科认可了一项SCO-仅仅的欧亚大陆军事行动,组织缺乏这种能力。它会必须集合来自SCO国家的分遣队的一个非正式军队。一个如此努力会花费一些时间和会可能忍受主要的问题关联到协同、指挥和控制。

    理查德·韦茨博士是美国哥伦比亚特区华盛顿哈德森学会未来安全策略中心资深成员和副主任。

    附原文供对照参考:

Shanghai summit fails to yield NATO-style defence agreement

By Dr Richard Weitz

Notwithstanding their expanding security activities, Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) leaders deny any intention to create a Eurasian version of Nato. They justify the institution's large-scale military exercises by citing the challenge of countering modern terrorist organisations equipped with substantial conventional firepower. Both Zhang Deguang, the SCO's executive secretary, and Vitaliy Vorobyev, Russia's special envoy to the SCO, claim that its charter would not even permit the organisation's transformation into a military alliance. The SCO continues to lack dedicated military forces, an integrated command structure, or even a combined planning staff.

China would benefit most from the SCO's conversion into a traditional defence alliance, since it lacks a multilateral mechanism to legitimise and co-ordinate the use of its armed force in Central Asia. Russia favours the status quo because it can veto SCO actions, which require a consensus, while China lacks equivalent influence over Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) decisions because it is not a member. With the entry of Uzbekistan in June, the CSTO now includes all other SCO members, as well as Armenia and Belarus. The CSTO is a genuine collective defence alliance whose members pledge to defend one another against external aggression. The CSTO has already established a 4,000-man rapid deployment unit and is developing a collective peacekeeping force and additional crisis management capacities.

Russia can exploit its leading position within the CSTO to organise a regional military operation in Central Asia, without SCO approval if necessary. Even if Moscow endorsed a SCO-only military operation in Eurasia, the organisation lacks such capacity. It would have to assemble an ad hoc force from SCO national contingents. Such an effort would take some time and would be likely to suffer from major problems relating to interoperability and command and control.

Dr Richard Weitz is a senior fellow and associate director of the Center for Future Security Strategies at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC

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