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[环球展望军事网编译]2008年6月5日:台湾地区最近当选的,亲中国大陆的国民党总裁最近拜访了中国大陆并且和中国大陆领导人会见。当台湾地区仍然维持它的“独立”,但逆转远离宣布独立时候,中国大陆有必要去制造友好的气氛。因此中国大陆将会在台湾岛对面海岸上(横越台湾海峡180公里之远)停止列装巡航导弹和弹道导弹,然后开始减少现在已部署的数目(大约1,300枚)。台湾地区没有宣布也会暂停它的反弹道导弹计划或向美国追加购买F-16战斗机。
中国大陆近程弹道导弹携带一枚重量一吨或半吨的弹头,而且被预计用来尽力削弱台湾地区的空军和海军,和攻击总部和通信目标。在之后,中国大陆军队会试着以机载和水陆两栖兵力进攻。没有那些导弹,台湾地区优势空中和海军兵力将会造成它非常困难,即使不是不可能,让进攻兵力去穿越台湾海峡。
译文难免有误,附原文供对照参考:
Where Will The Missiles Go?
June 5, 2008: Taiwan's newly elected, pro-China, president visited China recently and met with Chinese leaders. While Taiwan still maintains its independence, by backing away from formally declaring independence, China felt obliged to make nice as well. So China will stop installing cruise and ballistic missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan (180 kilometers away across the Taiwan Straits), and then begun reducing the number (about 1,300) currently installed. Taiwan did not announce that it would also shut down its anti-ballistic missile program, or purchase of additional U.S. F-16 fighters.
The Chinese missiles carry one ton or half ton warheads, and were expected to be used to try and cripple Taiwanese air force and navy, as well as attacking headquarters and communications targets. After that, China would try to invade with airborne and amphibious forces. Without those missiles, Taiwans's superior air and naval forces would make it very difficult, if not impossible, for the invasion force to cross the straits.
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